Project Snapshot

Surveillance Pillar

A Bayesian Network Model to Explore Management Options for Environmental AMR Control 

Project Key Words: Campylobacter, enterococci, E. coli, Risk Assessment, Integrated Assessment Model, Bayes Net

Principal Investigator: Nicholas Ashbolt, PhD

Co-Investigator(s): Simon Otto, PhD; Richard Reid-Smith, DVSc; Carolee Carson, PhD; Colleen Murphy, PhD; Ben Smith; Ainsley Otten; Tim McAllister, PhD; Sylvia Checkley, PhD; Scott McEwen, DVSc, DipACVP; Lynora Saxinger; Eduardo Taboada; Doug Inglis

Trainees: Mariem Oloraso, MSc candidate; Gabriela Paulus, PhD candidate; Qiaozhi Li, PhD; Nancy Price, PhD

Project Theme: Policy, Economics & Sustainability

The Aim

The aim of this project is to quantify the efficacy of available control strategies for managing  environmental risks of AMR in fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter, vancomycin-resistant E. faecalis & ESBL E. coli to humans.

Why is This Important?

The environment represents both a source and place of exchange in AMR between environmental bacteria and human pathogens, and water-based pathways are not considered at the system level for AMR management, but could dominate exposure risks.


New quantitative modeling tools to understand the relative risk reductions of AMR transmission/health burden through management interventions.

Research Questions

What is the relative risk of waterborne vs. foodborne transmission of AMR from poultry and beef production to humans via fluoroquinolone resistant Campylobacter, macrolide-resistant enterococci, and ESBL E. coli?

Our Approach

We will use various models and networks to follow intervention scenarios and parameter values. Priorities to management options will be described and discussed with other WP leads using probabailities of infection, health burden (DALYs), and economic measures to compare between scenarios for the three AMR pathogen representatives.

Leveraged Sources of Support

  • MIF Funds
  • AI Funds
  • CIHR Funds
  • UofA School of Public Health Funds
  • PHAC
  • GRDI NRC1 + NRC2

Knowledge & Technology: Exchange and Exploitation

  • Identification of risk management interventions to curb the transmission of AMR through water & food
  • Change in manure management, wastewater, and drinking water practices
  • Identify new opportunities of focus for antimicrobial stewardship and vaccine use

Highly Qualified Personnel

  • 1 Undergraduate MMI Student
  • 2 MSc Students
  • 1 PhD Student
  • 2 Research Associates